NCAA Tournament Part I: The Upsets

Everyone who is going to fill out his or her bracket has filled it by now. I filled out six, four preliminary drafts and two final drafts.

The NCAA Tournament is the hardest sporting event to pick. However, I have had some success in the past. In 1999 I predicted a Final Four that included seventh seeded Ohio State and in 2003 I had an almost perfect first round going 28/32.

Picking upsets in the Tourney is always hip whether it is the twelve over the five seed or the fourteen over the three. Last year I had number thirteen Vermont over Syracuse and number fourteen Buck Nasty Bucknell over third seeded Kansas.

However, there aren’t two many first round upsets that strike me. But here are the four first round upsets I see and four potential second round upsets that could occur.

Upset 1: 12. Texas A&M over 5. Syracuse. A twelve over five seed is always a safe bet and I don’t buy the ‘Cuse as a strong team. Four days with four narrow wins, one of which was on a circus shot to win the game doesn’t sound like a top five team. I’ve seen both teams play several times and I like TAMU’s defense and the Orange have not done anything to impress me.

Upset 2: 14. South Alabama over 3. Florida. This upset might not happen, but I don’t think the Gators are Tournament ready. They played the weakest non-conference schedule and the SEC was worse than the Horizon League. If South Alabama can hang around late, they will pull if off.

Upset 3: 13. Bradley over 4. Kansas. The Jayhawks have improved immensely over the coarse of the year. Kudos to Bill Self. However, the Jayhawks have not had a lot of success in the Tournament recently and were bounced in the first round last year by the Bucknell Bison. Bill Self took Tulsa and Illinois to the Elite Eight, but has not been that successful at Kansas. Bradley is one of those Missouri Valley Conference teams that always seem to play well in the Tournament.

Upset 4: 13. Iona over 4. LSU. LSU has over-achieved this year with “Baby Shaq,” Glen Davis. Iona almost got past Oklahoma last year and is a very good mid-major team. I don’t know if they can get past LSU’s athleticism and size, but the Gaels can play and could just pull off an upset.

The second round will have many more intriguing match-ups.

Duke vs. George Washington: How GW got an eight seed is beyond me. GW can run and shoot and don’t mind playing an up-tempo game. The Blue Devils will have to bring their A-game to win this one.

Villanova vs. Wisconsin/Arizona: Can a team without Allen Ray and only one starter taller than 6’4” go far in the Tourney? No. Wisconsin’s flex offense or Arizona’s inside-outside play could be too much for the Wildcats.

Ohio State vs. Georgetown: Georgetown is better than a five seed and 7’2’’ Roy Hibbert can stop Terrance Dials. The Hoyas four corners offense threw off Duke and could easily confuse the Buckeyes. OSU lives and dies by the three, they need to be on to win this game.

North Carolina vs. Michigan State: When was the last time a defending National Champion lost in the second round of the NCAA tournament? 2003, when the Spartans knocked off the Terripans of Maryland. Can State do it again? In 2002 and 2004 the Spartans were upset in the first round, hopefully 2006 is like 2003 and not the previous two even years. Moreover Tom Izzo’s teams are undefeated in second round games.